About a week ago, anti-immigrant fanatic Lou Barletta jumped into the race against Dem Rep. Paul Kanjorski in PA-11. Barletta is the Republican mayor of Hazelton, PA and is best known for pushing his city to adopt a measure which “sought to deny business permits to companies that employ illegal immigrants, fine landlords who rent to them and require tenants to register and pay for a rental permit.” It was later found unconstitutional.
This, of course, has made Barletta immensely popular among winger circles, and David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report says that GOPers are “justifiably encouraged” by his entry into the race. Consequently, he’s moved his rating on the race from Safe Dem to Likely Dem. This still makes Kanjorski the overwhelming favorite, but it suggests that this seat might be in play.
While bluish, PA-11 is not rock-solid Dem territory – it has a PVI of D+5.5. However, Kanjorski has $1.5 million on hand, and he thumped Barletta by 13 points the last time the two faced off in 2002. (You’ll recall that was not an especially good Democratic year.)
Barletta is definitely swimming against the tide, with the economy teetering and voter disgust about the war in Iraq unchanged. But could being a one-issue candidate somehow play to his advantage? Can his anti-immigrant obsession tap into fears about the economy and push all other issues to the side? Without knowing a lot more about the particulars of this district, I just can’t say.
But SSPers, what say you? Does Barletta have any kidn of shot? Is Wasserman’s rating change justified? What’s this district like? Tell us.
… this “race” is all a bunch of hot air. I’d add that that doesn’t mean victory by Kanjorski should be taken for granted, but I think the Dems have learned by now not to take anything for granted, so…
Barletta will lose, but it’s just a question of whether he loses by a close margin (8-10 points) or by more of a landslidish figure (15-20 points).
I think “Likely Dem” is the right rating for this race. I believe that means it has the potential to become a close race if I am not mistaken. Although I still think we will be victorious, Barletta did just win re-election as mayor of Hazleton and more important in the primary he won both the R and D sides of the ballot. So I would agree the potential is there but here’s hoping it never comes to fruition.
His nomination is uniquely crafted to kill this kind of attack dead. Are we really expecting that an anti-immigrant crusader is going to be successful in knocking off a Dem incumbent with one of those nefarious pro-amnesty types at the top of his ticket?
This is yet another reason not to fear McCain, incidentally.
Incidentally, for the love of all that’s precious, please Harry Reid bring the immigration bill back up for debate one (or two or three) more time…
Barletta spent over a half a million and was outspent 2-1. Given Kanjorski’s war chest he’d have to raise a million to preserve the 2-1 margin. The whole myth of the immigration issue really rides on the one minute man candidate pulling 25% in a single California special election. That was in San Diego County not Scranton.
There were a whole lot of races last cycle that the Republicans sold as sure super secret winners. None were and I don’t remember any being very close. The Washington insiders bought every one of those wishful thinking scenarios. Every one. Let’s count them. Allan Mollohan. Spratt in SC. Earl Pomeroy. Stephanie Herseth. NY-24 where Tom Reynolds swore on a stack of televangelistic Bibles that it was safe Republican. Vermont with Martha Rainville. The experts listened and blew every one. Republican hot air is a leading indicator that it will not be a close race.
blue dog district, Casey, a pro-life Dem, got some 65% here against Santorum last time around, and Kanjorski is asimilar fit, if not more moderate. Kanjorski’s been around for more than twenty four years since he won in easily in 1984, and then beat Marc Holtzman by a huge margin in 1986. He’s a perfect fit for this district, and the only reason it was close in 2002 was becasue right before the election their were reports about the FBI investigating him for funneling millions of dollars towards a family business or something of that nature. The charges ended up being dropped after the election, but it was a huge boost to Barletta right before the election, and it still wasn’t enough. I don’t see Kanjorski losing, even in a Phil Crane kind of way.
(There Will BE Blood was fantastic! LEave your computers right now and go see it!!!)
Are you sure it wasn’t 1984 when Holtzman ran against Kanjorski? In any case, that was one of only two cases of him getting less than 60% of the vote. Yes, the other was against Barletta, but that was not only a Republican year, it was also immediately after redistricting that moved a lot of territory into Kanjorski’s district for the first time.
Kanjorski is really pretty conservative on social issues, so I don’t see any Republican outflanking him on the right. (Nor do I hold it against him as a Democrat in that district – it’s a very backwards area!) The Republicans have won that seat exactly one time in the past 50 years (1980), and that was against a short-term incumbent in a very good year for them. If they want to throw money at this seat this year, I say go for it.